Scott Gottlieb: “Covid-19 is a Three Dose Vaccine” Observations from Israel’s Third dose efforts.

Scott Gottlieb, Former CDC chief under Trump, said The Covid-19 vaccine should be considered a three dose vaccine. Israel is the first country to provide the 3rd dose, which has made Covid-19 outbreaks almost exclusively a epidemic of the un-vaccinated in Israel. Flu viruses have reproduction rates of 1 to 2 typically. Vaccinating 60% of the population is effective in limiting flu. The Covid-19 Alpha Variant has a reproduction rate of 3 to 4. To control Alpha 80% of the population needs effective immunity. A vaccine that is 95% effective,means 85% of the population needs vaccinated to end the epidemic. Israel achieved that with an 88% vaccination rate and by mid-May new cases dropped to 50 per day from several thousand new cases a day in March.

The Delta Variant appeared in June and daily new cases jumped back to several thousand by early September. There were a number of breakthrough cases. Delta has a much higher reproduction rate and 95% of people need effective immunity. to control Dela. To achieve this with a 95% effective vaccine, 100% needs vaccinated. Thus, while an 88% vaccination rate was high enough to control the Alpha variant, it was not high enough to control the Delta variant. Israel provided a third dose and new cases dropped from several thousand to just over 400 a day. Almost all of these cases are in those folks who did not get vaccinated. Some anti-vax folks posts Israel’s charts of new cases of covid-19 into September. These folks claim the charts show the vaccines don’t work because after achieving 88% vaccination rates numbers skyrocketed. The anti-vax folks, post Israel charts that are cut off sometime in September. They published their posts in October when the charts showed the 3rd vaccine dose had a hug impact on reducing new cases. A half chart is a half truth and these folk’s disinformation kills more people than any serial killer. When looking at any posts, look up the complete charts. The anti-vaccine folks seem to have become a cult. Physicians would almost need to deprogram their patients to convince them to get vaccinated. Unless the patient shows the reference for their beliefs, then physicians can show the patient the complete reference pointing out how they have been deceived by partial information, you will not convince them to be vaccinated.

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